Amarante 0-1 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
27%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
62%
1.54
Over 2.5
38%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.03
No
60%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
39%
+6.7pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.7pp
27%
Away Win
32%
-5.0pp
62%
Under 2.5
61%
+0.6pp
38%
Over 2.5
39%
-0.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
45%
-5.1pp
60%
BTTS No
55%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 36%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -20% / -20%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.48/1.21
-22% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -56% / +7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
276 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Varzim
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
48% Ball Possession 52%
6 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 0
31.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 1-3 HT 0-2 Amarante Amarante POR3
24.09.2017 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
0-1
AWAY Varzim
56% Ball Possession 44%
9 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Varzim edged past Amarante 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Amarante at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Amarante had 56% of the ball to Varzim's 44%, shots finished 9-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Amarante had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Amarante and 0.50 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Varzim?

Amarante 0-1 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Amarante 46%, draw 27%, Varzim 27%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Amarante) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Amarante) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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