Varzim 1-3 Amarante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.18
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.54
Over 2.5
49%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
10%
1/X
8%
X/1
12%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.9pp
28%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
61%
-9.7pp
49%
Over 2.5
39%
+9.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.7pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Varzim EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Amarante EU Bookmakers 32%
-14% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +56% / +56%
0.82/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/0.00
-35% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% /
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
342 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Varzim
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Amarante
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
46% Ball Possession 54%
7 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 3
24.09.2017 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Varzim
1-3
AWAY Amarante
59% Ball Possession 41%
29 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
13 Corners 1
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Varzim vs Amarante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante got the better of Varzim 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Amarante found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Varzim had 59% of the ball to Amarante's 41%, shots finished 29-7.

What was the final score of Varzim vs Amarante?

Varzim 1-3 Amarante in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Varzim vs Amarante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Varzim win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Varzim 38%, draw 28%, Amarante 34%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Varzim) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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