Fafe 1-0 Trofense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.12
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
34%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.67
Over 2.5
49%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
15%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
43%
-1.5pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.1pp
34%
Away Win
30%
+4.6pp
51%
Under 2.5
56%
-5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
44%
+5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.5pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Trofense EU Bookmakers 33%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.19/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.60
-5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +27% / -21%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
318 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 376 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Trofense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
43% Ball Possession 57%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-3 HT 1-2 Trofense Trofense POR3
24.02.2024 Trofense Trofense 1-3 HT 1-2 Fafe Fafe POR3
13.01.2024 Trofense Trofense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
01.10.2023 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 2-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
1-0
AWAY Trofense
56% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Trofense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe nicked a narrow win over Trofense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Fafe as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fafe had 56% of the ball to Trofense's 44%, shots finished 18-15.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Fafe had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fafe and 1.25 for Trofense.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Trofense?

Fafe 1-0 Trofense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Trofense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fafe win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fafe 42%, draw 24%, Trofense 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fafe), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fafe) ✓ Under 2.5
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