Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-2 Sporting Braga II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 31 Aug 2024

📅31/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.76
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
28%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
15%
X/2
14%
X/X
9%
2/1
5%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
53%
-7.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.7pp
28%
Away Win
23%
+5.5pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.5pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 26%
+6% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
2.69/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.23
+94% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
3W-1D-0L
AWAY Sporting Braga II
2.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
04.05.2024 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 3-2 HT 2-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
10.03.2024 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-2 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
12.11.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 5-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
12.08.2023 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 0-1 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-2
AWAY Sporting Braga II
64% Ball Possession 36%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga II nicked a narrow win over Lusitania FC Lourosa 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Lusitania FC Lourosa at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 64% of the ball to Sporting Braga II's 36%, shots finished 13-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.75 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 1.00 for Sporting Braga II.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-2 Sporting Braga II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 31/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 45%, draw 26%, Sporting Braga II 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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