Lusitania FC Lourosa 3-2 Sporting Braga II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
13%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-1.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.7pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.5pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga II EU Bookmakers 32%
+23% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +7%
2.03/0.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.20
+68% / +88% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 338 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Sporting Braga II
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 1
10.03.2024 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 2-2 HT 1-0 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
12.11.2023 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa 5-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II POR3
12.08.2023 Sporting Braga II Sporting Braga II 0-1 HT 0-1 Lusitania FC Lourosa Lusitania FC Lourosa POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania FC Lourosa
3-2
AWAY Sporting Braga II
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
8 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania FC Lourosa edged past Sporting Braga II 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Lusitania FC Lourosa as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Lusitania FC Lourosa had 51% of the ball to Sporting Braga II's 49%, shots finished 11-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitania FC Lourosa had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Lusitania FC Lourosa and 0.67 for Sporting Braga II.

What was the final score of Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II?

Lusitania FC Lourosa 3-2 Sporting Braga II in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lusitania FC Lourosa win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Lusitania FC Lourosa 43%, draw 25%, Sporting Braga II 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lusitania FC Lourosa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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