Canelas 2010 0-2 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
32%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.82
No
49%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
10%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
54%
-11.4pp
26%
Draw
24%
+1.4pp
32%
Away Win
22%
+10.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+2.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-2.6pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.3pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Canelas 2010 EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 25%
-71% / -71% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +38% / +38%
1.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/0.57
-34% / -53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +132%
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
411 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 204 · 69%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Canelas 2010
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Fafe
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.02.2024 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 2-0 Canelas 2010 Canelas 2010 POR3
28.01.2024 Fafe Fafe 0-0 HT 0-0 Canelas 2010 Canelas 2010 POR3
29.10.2023 Canelas 2010 Canelas 2010 3-1 HT 2-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
21.01.2023 Fafe Fafe 0-2 HT 0-0 Canelas 2010 Canelas 2010 POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Canelas 2010
0-2
AWAY Fafe
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Canelas 2010 vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe got the better of Canelas 2010 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Canelas 2010 at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Canelas 2010 had 57% of the ball to Fafe's 43%, shots finished 13-10.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Canelas 2010 had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Canelas 2010 and 0.75 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Canelas 2010 vs Fafe?

Canelas 2010 0-2 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Canelas 2010 vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Canelas 2010 win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Canelas 2010 42%, draw 26%, Fafe 32%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Canelas 2010), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Canelas 2010) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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