Dezembro 0-1 Caldas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.33
Draw
35%
3.28
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.78
Over 2.5
37%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.76
No
57%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
39%
-4.0pp
34%
Draw
27%
+7.4pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.3pp
62%
Under 2.5
52%
+10.1pp
38%
Over 2.5
48%
-10.1pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.6pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dezembro EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Caldas EU Bookmakers 37%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.02/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.75/1.81
-16% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -34%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
320 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dezembro
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Caldas
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
7 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.02.2024 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 1-0 Dezembro Dezembro POR3
11.11.2023 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Dezembro Dezembro POR3
13.08.2023 Dezembro Dezembro 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dezembro
0-1
AWAY Caldas
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Dezembro vs Caldas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas squeezed past Dezembro 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 34% / 30%) promised a tight game; Caldas found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (62%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Dezembro had 52% of the ball to Caldas's 48%, shots finished 11-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Caldas led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Dezembro and 2.00 for Caldas.

What was the final score of Dezembro vs Caldas?

Dezembro 0-1 Caldas in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dezembro vs Caldas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dezembro win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Dezembro 35%, draw 34%, Caldas 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Dezembro) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dezembro) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR3 More Portugal - 3rd Division
4 May 2024
16:00 Lusitania FC Lourosa vs Sporting Braga II Analysis →
18:00 Vianense vs Anadia Analysis →
18:00 Trofense vs Sanjoanense Analysis →
18:00 Canelas 2010 vs Fafe Analysis →
18:00 Academica vs Atletico CP Analysis →
18:00 Sporting CP II vs Amora FC Analysis →