Trofense 1-2 Sanjoanense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 4 May 2024

📅04/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
22%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.96
No
54%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
15%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.0pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.6pp
22%
Away Win
17%
+5.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.1pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.3pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trofense EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Sanjoanense EU Bookmakers 20%
-22% / -22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +37% / +37%
1.57/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.39/1.21
-8% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +50% / +21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
255 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trofense
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Sanjoanense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
17.02.2024 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 0-3 HT 0-2 Trofense Trofense POR3
05.11.2023 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense 3-2 HT 0-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
08.08.2023 Trofense Trofense 1-0 HT 0-0 Sanjoanense Sanjoanense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trofense
1-2
AWAY Sanjoanense
63% Ball Possession 37%
19 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 7
6 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Trofense vs Sanjoanense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sanjoanense squeezed past Trofense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Trofense at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Trofense had 63% of the ball to Sanjoanense's 37%, shots finished 19-16.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Trofense had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Trofense and 1.00 for Sanjoanense.

What was the final score of Trofense vs Sanjoanense?

Trofense 1-2 Sanjoanense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 04/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trofense vs Sanjoanense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Trofense 53%, draw 25%, Sanjoanense 22%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Trofense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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