Caldas 2-1 Dezembro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 18 Feb 2024

📅18/02/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.82
Over 2.5
42%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
3%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
10%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-8.6pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.9pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
51%
+6.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
49%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Dezembro EU Bookmakers 20%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
1.56/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.39
-10% / -28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +7%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
419 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Dezembro
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 5
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 3
11.11.2023 Caldas Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Dezembro Dezembro POR3
13.08.2023 Dezembro Dezembro 3-2 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
2-1
AWAY Dezembro
41% Ball Possession 59%
7 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 11
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Dezembro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas edged past Dezembro 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Caldas as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Caldas had 41% of the ball to Dezembro's 59%, shots finished 7-10.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Caldas and 2.00 for Dezembro.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Dezembro?

Caldas 2-1 Dezembro in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 18/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Dezembro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Caldas 52%, draw 25%, Dezembro 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Caldas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Caldas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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