Trofense 1-3 Fafe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 24 Feb 2024

📅24/02/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.62
Over 2.5
42%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
No
57%
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
20%
X/2
9%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.5pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.6pp
58%
Under 2.5
58%
-0.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
42%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Trofense EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Fafe EU Bookmakers 25%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +24% / +24%
0.65/0.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.52/0.73
-58% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -47% / +88%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Trofense
0W-0D-2L
AWAY Fafe
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
13.01.2024 Trofense Trofense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
01.10.2023 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 2-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Trofense
1-3
AWAY Fafe
59% Ball Possession 41%
21 Total Shots 4
8 Shots on Target 4
11 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Trofense vs Fafe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fafe saw off Trofense 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

Our pre-match lean was Trofense at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Trofense had 59% of the ball to Fafe's 41%, shots finished 21-4.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Fafe led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Trofense and 1.50 for Fafe.

What was the final score of Trofense vs Fafe?

Trofense 1-3 Fafe in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 24/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Trofense vs Fafe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Trofense 46%, draw 28%, Fafe 26%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Trofense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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