Fafe 2-3 Trofense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 27 Apr 2024

📅27/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.47
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
36%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.68
Over 2.5
35%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
35%
1.85
No
65%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
22%
X/2
14%
X/X
19%
2/1
4%
2/2
17%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
37%
Away Win
35%
+1.3pp
65%
Under 2.5
56%
+9.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
44%
-9.1pp
35%
BTTS Yes
50%
-15.1pp
65%
BTTS No
50%
+15.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fafe EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Trofense EU Bookmakers 39%
+11% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.35/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/1.20
+8% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +33% / +2%
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
262 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fafe
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Trofense
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 9
3 Yellow Cards 3
24.02.2024 Trofense Trofense 1-3 HT 1-2 Fafe Fafe POR3
13.01.2024 Trofense Trofense 0-1 HT 0-0 Fafe Fafe POR3
01.10.2023 Fafe Fafe 2-1 HT 2-0 Trofense Trofense POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fafe
2-3
AWAY Trofense
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fafe vs Trofense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Trofense edged past Fafe 3-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (36% / 28% / 37%) promised a tight game; Trofense found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (65%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fafe had 53% of the ball to Trofense's 47%, shots finished 12-13.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Fafe had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Fafe and 0.67 for Trofense.

What was the final score of Fafe vs Trofense?

Fafe 2-3 Trofense in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 27/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fafe vs Trofense?

Before kick-off our model rated an Trofense win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Fafe 36%, draw 28%, Trofense 37%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Trofense) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Trofense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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