Ümraniyespor 1-2 Keçiörengücü — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 15 Dec 2024

📅15/12/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.09
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.8
Over 2.5
45%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.75
No
54%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.18
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
3.77
6+ Goals
10%
15.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.18 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.04
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
10%
4.71
X/2
11%
6.56
X/X
8%
4.63
2/1
11%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.83
2/X
8%
14.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
44%
+2.3pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.7pp
30%
Away Win
30%
+0.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-7.0pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 33%
+8% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +19%
1.51/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.18
+19% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +23%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
340 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 302 · 77%
18.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.1
15.6 Crosses 17.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ümraniyespor
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Keçiörengücü
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.02 xG 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
326 Passes 288
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
23 Box Touches 24
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.04.2024 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 4-2 HT 4-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
09.12.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
19.04.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.11.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
19.02.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
17.10.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ümraniyespor
1-2
AWAY Keçiörengücü
0.45 xG 1.70
54% Ball Possession 46%
9 Total Shots 12
1 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
414 Passes 318
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
10 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü edged past Ümraniyespor 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ümraniyespor at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ümraniyespor had 54% of the ball to Keçiörengücü's 46%, shots finished 9-12, expected goals 0.45 to 1.70 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Keçiörengücü's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ümraniyespor and 1.67 for Keçiörengücü.

What was the final score of Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?

Ümraniyespor 1-2 Keçiörengücü in the Turkey - 1st Division on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ümraniyespor vs Keçiörengücü?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ümraniyespor 46%, draw 24%, Keçiörengücü 30%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
T1L More Turkey - 1st Division
15 Dec 2024
13:30 Bandırmaspor vs Gençlerbirliği Analysis →
16:00 Çorum FK vs Amed SK Analysis →
19:00 Kocaelispor vs Esenler Erokspor Analysis →