Keçiörengücü 4-2 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.09
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.8
Over 2.5
46%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.75
No
51%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.15
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 28% vs market 26.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
10%
12.25
X/1
7%
4.79
X/2
14%
7.23
X/X
12%
4.2
2/1
5%
27.0
2/2
16%
5.27
2/X
6%
12.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
44%
-9.1pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.4pp
36%
Away Win
27%
+9.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.7pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.4pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keçiörengücü EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 30%
-11% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -7%
1.32/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.54
-13% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 270 · 72%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.6
20.4 Crosses 15.5
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keçiörengücü
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.00 xG 1.99
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 5
302 Passes 326
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 2
09.12.2023 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
19.04.2022 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-1 HT 2-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
28.11.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 3-2 HT 1-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
19.02.2021 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü 0-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
17.10.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-2 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
22.02.2020 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 2-0 HT 1-0 Keçiörengücü Keçiörengücü T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Keçiörengücü
4-2
AWAY Ümraniyespor
38% Ball Possession 62%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 387
76% Pass Accuracy 82%
POST-MATCH Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keçiörengücü beat Ümraniyespor 4-2. Half-time: 4-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Keçiörengücü made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Keçiörengücü had 38% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 62%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Keçiörengücü and 1.67 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Keçiörengücü 4-2 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ümraniyespor win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Keçiörengücü 35%, draw 29%, Ümraniyespor 36%. The final score 4-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Ümraniyespor) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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