Nacional vs Tondela Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Nacional v Tondela — Team-Based Signals
Nacional vs Tondela Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Nacional
POR2
1-0
HT 0-0
Tondela
POK
0-1
HT 0-1
Tondela
POR2
2-1
HT 1-1
Nacional
POR
Nacional 3-1 Tondela — Actual Match Statistics
Nacional got the better of Tondela 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 28% / 35% — and on the day Nacional made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Nacional had 44% of the ball to Tondela's 56%, shots finished 8-21.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tondela led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nacional and 1.17 for Tondela.
What was the final score of Nacional vs Tondela?
Nacional 3-1 Tondela in the Portugal - Premier League on 15/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Nacional vs Tondela?
Before kick-off our model rated a Nacional win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Nacional 37%, draw 28%, Tondela 35%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nacional), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.