Mebrat Hayl 2-1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 16 Jan 2026

📅16/01/2026 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.53
Draw
34%
2.63
Away
27%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
Over 2.5
34%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.51
No
55%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
40%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
36%
+2.6pp
34%
Draw
35%
-0.5pp
27%
Away Win
29%
-2.1pp
45%
BTTS Yes
36%
+9.5pp
55%
BTTS No
64%
-9.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Mebrat Hayl EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Ethiopia Nigd Bank EU Bookmakers 32%
+4% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -8%
0.49/0.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.32
-49% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -30%
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
291 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Mebrat Hayl
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Ethiopia Nigd Bank
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
4 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 2
05.06.2025 Mebrat Hayl Mebrat Hayl 0-0 HT 0-0 Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Nigd Bank ETH
14.01.2025 Ethiopia Nigd Bank Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1-0 Mebrat Hayl Mebrat Hayl ETH
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Mebrat Hayl
2-1
AWAY Ethiopia Nigd Bank
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 6
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Mebrat Hayl vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Mebrat Hayl nicked a narrow win over Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 34% / 27% — and on the day Mebrat Hayl made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Mebrat Hayl had 42% of the ball to Ethiopia Nigd Bank's 58%, shots finished 8-3.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Ethiopia Nigd Bank led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Mebrat Hayl and 0.50 for Ethiopia Nigd Bank.

What was the final score of Mebrat Hayl vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?

Mebrat Hayl 2-1 Ethiopia Nigd Bank in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 16/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Mebrat Hayl vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank?

Before kick-off our model rated a Mebrat Hayl win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Mebrat Hayl 39%, draw 34%, Ethiopia Nigd Bank 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Mebrat Hayl) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Mebrat Hayl) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ETH More Etiyopya - Premier League
16 Jan 2026
13:00 Sheger Ketema vs Fasil Ketema Analysis →
15:00 Negele Arsi Ketema vs Welayta Dicha Analysis →
16:00 Hadiya Hosaena vs Shire Endaselassie Analysis →