GIANA Erminio 2-1 Atalanta II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.9
Over 2.5
43%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.68
No
53%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.2
2-3 Goals
38%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.32
6+ Goals
8%
12.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 30% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
16%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
41%
+1.6pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.0pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.7pp
57%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.2pp
43%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.6pp
53%
BTTS No
44%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME GIANA Erminio EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atalanta II EU Bookmakers 36%
-7% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.13/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.00
-7% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / +15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
253 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 301 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME GIANA Erminio
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Atalanta II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
04.10.2024 Atalanta II Atalanta II 1-3 HT 0-2 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
20.01.2024 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta II Atalanta II İTC
15.09.2023 Atalanta II Atalanta II 3-2 HT 2-1 GIANA Erminio GIANA Erminio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME GIANA Erminio
2-1
AWAY Atalanta II
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH GIANA Erminio vs Atalanta II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

GIANA Erminio squeezed past Atalanta II 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had GIANA Erminio as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, GIANA Erminio had 40% of the ball to Atalanta II's 60%, shots finished 8-10.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for GIANA Erminio and 1.33 for Atalanta II.

What was the final score of GIANA Erminio vs Atalanta II?

GIANA Erminio 2-1 Atalanta II in the Italy - Serie C on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for GIANA Erminio vs Atalanta II?

Before kick-off our model rated a GIANA Erminio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split GIANA Erminio 42%, draw 27%, Atalanta II 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (GIANA Erminio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (GIANA Erminio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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