Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Septemvri Sofia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
32%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.9
Over 2.5
42%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
54%
-14.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.3pp
32%
Away Win
20%
+12.1pp
58%
Under 2.5
49%
+8.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
51%
-8.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.9pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Septemvri Sofia EU Bookmakers 23%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -3%
1.81/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.55
+21% / -34% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / -28%
54% Ball Possession 46%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
359 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.4 Yellow Cards 4.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.08.2024 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia 2-3 HT 1-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
07.04.2023 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-1 HT 1-0 Septemvri Sofia Septemvri Sofia BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
0-1
AWAY Septemvri Sofia
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Septemvri Sofia squeezed past Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 27% / 32%) promised a tight game; Septemvri Sofia found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 48% of the ball to Septemvri Sofia's 52%, shots finished 12-10.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.50 for Septemvri Sofia.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-1 Septemvri Sofia in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 40%, draw 27%, Septemvri Sofia 32%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
16 Feb 2025
16:00 Ludogorets Razgrad vs PFC Beroe Analysis →
18:30 CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali Analysis →