Millonarios 0-1 Independiente Medellin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒04:10 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.18
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.52
Over 2.5
40%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.16
No
55%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
12%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
12%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
7%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
42%
-4.6pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.5pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+4.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.4pp
40%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.4pp
45%
BTTS Yes
42%
+3.2pp
55%
BTTS No
58%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Millonarios EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Independiente Medellin EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +4%
1.08/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.23
+18% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -13%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
269 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
15.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
16.0 Crosses 12.4
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Millonarios
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Independiente Medellin
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.47 xG 1.05
46% Ball Possession 54%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
249 Passes 324
74% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 18
17 Crosses 14
4 Yellow Cards 3
19.07.2024 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
22.01.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 5-0 HT 3-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
01.12.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 2-1 HT 2-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
27.11.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
19.09.2023 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 1-1 HT 0-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
18.06.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 0-0 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Millonarios
0-1
AWAY Independiente Medellin
0.40 xG 0.99
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
401 Passes 292
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 8
28 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Millonarios vs Independiente Medellin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Medellin squeezed past Millonarios 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (37% / 31% / 31%) promised a tight game; Independiente Medellin found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Millonarios had 57% of the ball to Independiente Medellin's 43%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 0.40 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Millonarios had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Millonarios and 0.83 for Independiente Medellin.

What was the final score of Millonarios vs Independiente Medellin?

Millonarios 0-1 Independiente Medellin in the Colombia - Primera on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Millonarios vs Independiente Medellin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Millonarios win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Millonarios 37%, draw 31%, Independiente Medellin 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Millonarios) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Millonarios) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
KOL More Colombia - Primera
16 Feb 2025
00:00 America de Cali vs Santa Fe Analysis →