Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Feb 2025

📅16/02/2025 · 🕒14:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
34%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.86
Over 2.5
45%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.17
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.35
6+ Goals
10%
12.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.17 — our 30% vs market 24.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.68
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
5%
12.4
X/1
13%
5.72
X/2
11%
5.93
X/X
16%
4.49
2/1
6%
28.0
2/2
16%
3.9
2/X
7%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.2pp
28%
Draw
28%
-0.2pp
34%
Away Win
35%
-1.1pp
55%
Under 2.5
50%
+5.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
50%
-5.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stal Mielec EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 38%
+11% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -22%
1.46/1.18 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.58
+5% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 78%
21.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.3
21.4 Crosses 22.1
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stal Mielec
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.30 xG 2.37
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 21
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 8
242 Passes 449
73% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 39
16 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 0-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
17.05.2024 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
25.11.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-3 HT 2-1 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
22.04.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-2 HT 2-0 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec POL
07.10.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 4-2 HT 2-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
18.02.2022 Stal Mielec Stal Mielec 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stal Mielec
1-2
AWAY Pogon Szczecin
1.44 xG 1.11
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 5
324 Passes 240
79% Pass Accuracy 70%
32 Box Touches 30
28 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin squeezed past Stal Mielec 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 28% / 34%) promised a tight game; Pogon Szczecin found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Stal Mielec had 55% of the ball to Pogon Szczecin's 45%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.44 to 1.11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Stal Mielec and 1.67 for Pogon Szczecin.

What was the final score of Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?

Stal Mielec 1-2 Pogon Szczecin in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stal Mielec vs Pogon Szczecin?

Before kick-off our model rated a Stal Mielec win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Stal Mielec 38%, draw 28%, Pogon Szczecin 34%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Stal Mielec) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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