Al Ahli Jeddah 4-3 Shabab Al Ahli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 16 Feb 2026

📅16/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.61
Draw
19%
3.8
Away
22%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.15
Over 2.5
54%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.7
No
46%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.95
2-3 Goals
36%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
14%
8.91
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.05
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
4%
14.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
27%
4.26
X/2
12%
10.25
X/X
7%
5.9
2/1
5%
21.05
2/2
4%
7.85
2/X
8%
16.15
Value flag · X/1 at 4.26 — our 27% vs market 18.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
58%
+1.4pp
19%
Draw
23%
-3.7pp
21%
Away Win
19%
+2.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
43%
+3.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
57%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
55%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS No
45%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli EU Bookmakers 22%
-7% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.43/0.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.02
-37% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +67%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
402 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 77%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
19.0 Crosses 12.5
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
2W-3D-0L
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
370 Passes 312
82% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
26.09.2020 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-1 HT 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
29.05.2017 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 1-3 HT 0-2 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah AŞMP
22.05.2017 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 1-1 HT 1-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
21.04.2015 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah 2-1 HT 0-1 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli AŞMP
25.02.2015 Shabab Al Ahli Shabab Al Ahli 3-3 HT 2-2 Al Ahli Jeddah Al Ahli Jeddah AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Ahli Jeddah
4-3
AWAY Shabab Al Ahli
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 3
267 Passes 362
77% Pass Accuracy 83%
POST-MATCH Al Ahli Jeddah vs Shabab Al Ahli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Al Ahli Jeddah edged past Shabab Al Ahli 4-3. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Al Ahli Jeddah as the likeliest winner at 59%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Al Ahli Jeddah had 44% of the ball to Shabab Al Ahli's 56%, shots finished 12-10.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Al Ahli Jeddah had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Al Ahli Jeddah and 1.40 for Shabab Al Ahli.

What was the final score of Al Ahli Jeddah vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Al Ahli Jeddah 4-3 Shabab Al Ahli in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 16/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Ahli Jeddah vs Shabab Al Ahli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Ahli Jeddah win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Al Ahli Jeddah 59%, draw 19%, Shabab Al Ahli 21%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Al Ahli Jeddah) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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