Al Sharjah 1-2 Nasaf Qarshi — Result, Statistics & Match Review — AFC Sampiyonlar League, 16 Feb 2026

📅16/02/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.49
Draw
23%
3.94
Away
19%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.86
Over 2.5
48%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.08
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.48
6+ Goals
9%
14.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.08 — our 28% vs market 25.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
34%
1.85
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.35
X/1
17%
3.81
X/2
6%
12.45
X/X
11%
5.52
2/1
6%
24.2
2/2
9%
11.05
2/X
5%
19.85
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
63%
-5.4pp
23%
Draw
22%
+1.3pp
19%
Away Win
15%
+4.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Al Sharjah EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi EU Bookmakers 18%
+17% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
0.68/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.09
-19% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
413 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 77%
21.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.2
13.4 Crosses 25.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Al Sharjah
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.42 xG 1.56
43% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
271 Passes 338
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
10 Box Touches 19
6 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 4
06.11.2023 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi 1-1 HT 0-1 Al Sharjah Al Sharjah AŞMP
23.10.2023 Al Sharjah Al Sharjah 1-0 HT 1-0 Nasaf Qarshi Nasaf Qarshi AŞMP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Al Sharjah
1-2
AWAY Nasaf Qarshi
1.59 xG 1.03
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
434 Passes 357
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 21
21 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Al Sharjah vs Nasaf Qarshi
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nasaf Qarshi squeezed past Al Sharjah 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Al Sharjah at 58% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Al Sharjah had 54% of the ball to Nasaf Qarshi's 46%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.59 to 1.03 — the balance of chances actually favoured Al Sharjah.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Al Sharjah had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Al Sharjah and 0.50 for Nasaf Qarshi.

What was the final score of Al Sharjah vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Al Sharjah 1-2 Nasaf Qarshi in the AFC Sampiyonlar League on 16/02/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Al Sharjah vs Nasaf Qarshi?

Before kick-off our model rated a Al Sharjah win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Al Sharjah 58%, draw 23%, Nasaf Qarshi 19%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Al Sharjah) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AŞMP More AFC Sampiyonlar League
16 Feb 2026
19:00 Al Ahli Jeddah vs Shabab Al Ahli Analysis →
21:15 Al Hilal Riyadh vs Al Wahda Analysis →
21:15 Al Shorta vs Al Duhail SC Analysis →