Motherwell 0-1 Aberdeen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
25%
3.18
Away
35%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.8
Over 2.5
52%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.75
No
46%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.13
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.74
6+ Goals
12%
15.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.74 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
3.4
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.95
X/1
11%
5.06
X/2
13%
6.17
X/X
9%
4.36
2/1
10%
28.0
2/2
14%
4.37
2/X
8%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.6pp
25%
Draw
28%
-3.2pp
35%
Away Win
31%
+3.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-3.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+3.9pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+1.1pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Aberdeen EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -22%
1.34/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.65
+24% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -24%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 368 · 80%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
20.6 Crosses 19.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Aberdeen
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.75 xG 1.52
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
237 Passes 290
66% Pass Accuracy 68%
17 Box Touches 18
22 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 2
14.02.2024 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-3 HT 2-3 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
01.11.2023 Motherwell Motherwell 2-4 HT 0-2 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
04.02.2023 Aberdeen Aberdeen 3-1 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
22.10.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 1-2 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
13.08.2022 Aberdeen Aberdeen 2-3 HT 1-1 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
19.02.2022 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 0-1 Aberdeen Aberdeen İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
0-1
AWAY Aberdeen
1.32 xG 1.15
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
322 Passes 332
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
27 Box Touches 40
30 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Aberdeen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aberdeen edged past Motherwell 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 25% / 35% — and on the day Aberdeen made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Motherwell had 50% of the ball to Aberdeen's 50%, shots finished 14-14, expected goals 1.32 to 1.15.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Aberdeen led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Motherwell and 2.50 for Aberdeen.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Motherwell 0-1 Aberdeen in the Scotland - Premiership on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Aberdeen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 40%, draw 25%, Aberdeen 35%. The final score 0-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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