Ross County 2-1 Hearts — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 16 Mar 2024

Ross County
2-1 HT 1-0
Hearts
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Scotland - Premiership – 2023/2024

Ross County vs Hearts Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.5
Draw
30%
3.35
Away
40%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.78
Over 2.5
47%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.85
No
51%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.99
2-3 Goals
37%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
11%
17.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.99 — our 31% vs market 27.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.24
1/2
9%
25.5
1/X
10%
14.9
X/1
9%
7.91
X/2
13%
4.15
X/X
14%
4.54
2/1
8%
34.5
2/2
17%
2.54
2/X
7%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
25%
+5.3pp
30%
Draw
26%
+4.1pp
40%
Away Win
49%
-9.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.8pp
49%
BTTS Yes
50%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS No
50%
+1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ross County v Hearts — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ross County EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Hearts EU Bookmakers 54%
-2% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -7%
0.93/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.25
-15% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +9%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
224 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 75%
18.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
18.8 Crosses 18.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.7

Ross County vs Hearts Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ross County
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Hearts
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.12 xG 1.74
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
218 Passes 399
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
30.12.2023 Hearts Hearts 2-2 HT 0-0 Ross County Ross County İKP
30.09.2023 Ross County Ross County 0-1 HT 0-0 Hearts Hearts İKP
22.04.2023 Hearts Hearts 6-1 HT 4-0 Ross County Ross County İKP
30.10.2022 Ross County Ross County 1-2 HT 1-2 Hearts Hearts İKP
30.07.2022 Hearts Hearts 2-1 HT 0-0 Ross County Ross County İKP
30.04.2022 Hearts Hearts 0-0 HT 0-0 Ross County Ross County İKP

Ross County 2-1 Hearts — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ross County
2-1
AWAY Hearts
1.74 xG 1.27
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 21
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 15
209 Passes 420
68% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 49
9 Crosses 35
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ross County vs Hearts
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ross County squeezed past Hearts 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (30% / 30% / 40%) promised a tight game; Ross County found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ross County had 36% of the ball to Hearts's 64%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 1.74 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hearts led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Ross County and 2.17 for Hearts.

What was the final score of Ross County vs Hearts?

Ross County 2-1 Hearts in the Scotland - Premiership on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ross County vs Hearts?

Before kick-off our model rated an Hearts win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Ross County 30%, draw 30%, Hearts 40%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Hearts) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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