Birmingham 0-1 Watford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 16 Mar 2024

Birmingham
0-1 HT 0-1
Watford
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Birmingham vs Watford Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
36%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.86
Over 2.5
49%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.7
No
48%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
21%
3.56
6+ Goals
11%
14.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.33 — our 27% vs market 24.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.22
1/2
9%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
11%
5.08
X/2
11%
6.34
X/X
9%
4.48
2/1
10%
27.0
2/2
16%
4.42
2/X
8%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
42%
-3.6pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.3pp
36%
Away Win
31%
+4.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
50%
+1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
50%
-1.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.0pp
48%
BTTS No
45%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Birmingham v Watford — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Birmingham EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Watford EU Bookmakers 34%
-7% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +8%
1.30/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.29
-9% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / +0%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
353 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 70%
21.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.7
19.1 Crosses 16.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Birmingham vs Watford Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Birmingham
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Watford
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.91 xG 1.43
39% Ball Possession 61%
8 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
224 Passes 414
70% Pass Accuracy 80%
12 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Watford Watford 2-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
14.03.2023 Watford Watford 3-0 HT 2-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
16.08.2022 Birmingham Birmingham 1-1 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNCL
20.03.2021 Watford Watford 3-0 HT 1-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL
12.12.2020 Birmingham Birmingham 0-1 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
18.04.2015 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Birmingham Birmingham İNCL

Birmingham 0-1 Watford — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Birmingham
0-1
AWAY Watford
1.94 xG 1.41
52% Ball Possession 48%
26 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 6
328 Passes 293
77% Pass Accuracy 73%
41 Box Touches 25
26 Crosses 17
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Birmingham vs Watford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford nicked a narrow win over Birmingham 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 26% / 36% — and on the day Watford made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Birmingham had 52% of the ball to Watford's 48%, shots finished 26-14, expected goals 1.94 to 1.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured Birmingham.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Watford led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Birmingham and 1.83 for Watford.

What was the final score of Birmingham vs Watford?

Birmingham 0-1 Watford in the England - Championship on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Birmingham vs Watford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Birmingham win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Birmingham 38%, draw 26%, Watford 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Birmingham), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Birmingham) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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