Eibar 2-0 Villarreal II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
25%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.15
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.72
6+ Goals
10%
15.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.15 — our 31% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
2.03
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.4
X/1
15%
3.68
X/2
10%
10.75
X/X
10%
5.08
2/1
6%
24.45
2/2
10%
8.96
2/X
7%
17.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
59%
-7.9pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.8pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.8pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+2.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Villarreal II EU Bookmakers 21%
+0% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -6%
1.41/0.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/1.52
-19% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -16%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
366 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 76%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.9
24.9 Crosses 11.4
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
1W-1D-1L
AWAY Villarreal II
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.12 xG 0.94
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
335 Passes 398
79% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 21
15 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.12.2023 Villarreal II Villarreal II 1-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS2
24.02.2023 Eibar Eibar 2-0 HT 1-0 Villarreal II Villarreal II İS2
19.08.2022 Villarreal II Villarreal II 2-2 HT 2-1 Eibar Eibar İS2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
2-0
AWAY Villarreal II
2.56 xG 0.53
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
384 Passes 346
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
38 Box Touches 20
17 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Villarreal II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Eibar got the better of Villarreal II 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Eibar as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (56%) came in.

On the day, Eibar had 52% of the ball to Villarreal II's 48%, shots finished 12-11, expected goals 2.56 to 0.53.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Eibar and 1.00 for Villarreal II.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Villarreal II?

Eibar 2-0 Villarreal II in the Spain - 2nd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Villarreal II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eibar win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Eibar 51%, draw 24%, Villarreal II 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Eibar), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Eibar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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