Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Ashdod — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Israel - Ligat HaAl, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.43
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
17%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.13
No
62%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
32%
3.14
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
19%
3.73
6+ Goals
8%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.14 — our 32% vs market 26.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1/2
4%
1/X
8%
X/1
23%
X/2
4%
X/X
12%
2/1
3%
2/2
9%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
66%
-5.9pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.6pp
17%
Away Win
13%
+4.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.4pp
38%
BTTS Yes
43%
-4.8pp
62%
BTTS No
57%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Ashdod EU Bookmakers 16%
-2% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.78/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.83/2.03
+18% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -54% / -34%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
418 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 76%
28.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.0
19.2 Crosses 9.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Ashdod
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.69 xG 0.16
59% Ball Possession 41%
13 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 2
416 Passes 265
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
10 Box Touches 6
13 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 3
30.12.2023 Ashdod Ashdod 1-3 HT 1-1 Hapoel Beer Sheva Hapoel Beer Sheva İSR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hapoel Beer Sheva
1-0
AWAY Ashdod
1.12 xG 0.91
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
275 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ashdod
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hapoel Beer Sheva edged past Ashdod 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Hapoel Beer Sheva as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (62%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Hapoel Beer Sheva had 49% of the ball to Ashdod's 51%, shots finished 14-11, expected goals 1.12 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ashdod?

Hapoel Beer Sheva 1-0 Ashdod in the Israel - Ligat HaAl on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Ashdod?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hapoel Beer Sheva win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Hapoel Beer Sheva 60%, draw 23%, Ashdod 17%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hapoel Beer Sheva), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hapoel Beer Sheva) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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