Nürnberg 0-2 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 16 Mar 2024

Nürnberg
0-2 HT 0-1
St. Pauli
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Nürnberg vs St. Pauli Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.87
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
46%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.97
Over 2.5
55%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.73
No
45%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
27%
3.27
6+ Goals
11%
11.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.27 — our 27% vs market 25.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
6.74
1/2
7%
23.15
1/X
7%
14.3
X/1
11%
9.09
X/2
12%
4.2
X/X
11%
5.06
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.28
2/X
7%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+6.1pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.3pp
46%
Away Win
52%
-6.4pp
45%
Under 2.5
47%
-1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
53%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS Yes
54%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS No
46%
-1.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Nürnberg v St. Pauli — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 56%
-2% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -18%
1.12/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.58/1.66
-32% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +9%
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
264 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 443 · 83%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.1
20.1 Crosses 22.4
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.1

Nürnberg vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nürnberg
0W-1D-5L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.50
1.03 xG 1.73
44% Ball Possession 56%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
272 Passes 396
73% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 5-1 HT 1-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
29.01.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
16.07.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-2 HT 3-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
29.04.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
28.11.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-3 HT 1-2 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
14.02.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-2 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2

Nürnberg 0-2 St. Pauli — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nürnberg
0-2
AWAY St. Pauli
0.14 xG 1.79
33% Ball Possession 67%
2 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 11
260 Passes 620
77% Pass Accuracy 89%
2 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nürnberg vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pauli saw off Nürnberg 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had St. Pauli as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Nürnberg had 33% of the ball to St. Pauli's 67%, shots finished 2-17, expected goals 0.14 to 1.79.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Nürnberg and 2.50 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Nürnberg vs St. Pauli?

Nürnberg 0-2 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nürnberg vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pauli win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Nürnberg 29%, draw 25%, St. Pauli 46%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pauli) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (St. Pauli) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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