Hillerod 1-2 Aalborg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.08
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
42%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.97
Over 2.5
51%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.81
4-5 Goals
24%
3.29
6+ Goals
9%
11.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 26% vs market 21.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.01
1/2
7%
24.0
1/X
5%
13.5
X/1
14%
7.09
X/2
17%
4.64
X/X
12%
4.95
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
18%
2.76
2/X
7%
13.15
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
29%
+5.2pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
42%
Away Win
45%
-3.3pp
49%
Under 2.5
47%
+2.3pp
51%
Over 2.5
53%
-2.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.4pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Aalborg EU Bookmakers 49%
-4% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +36% / +36%
1.28/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.85/1.07
-25% / +53% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / +24%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 77%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.2
20.2 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Aalborg
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
0.62 xG 1.21
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 6
3 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 5
378 Passes 270
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
11 Box Touches 14
12 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Aalborg Aalborg 3-0 HT 1-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
1-2
AWAY Aalborg
1.39 xG 1.19
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 7
505 Passes 283
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
30 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Aalborg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Aalborg edged past Hillerod 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Aalborg as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Hillerod had 61% of the ball to Aalborg's 39%, shots finished 21-15, expected goals 1.39 to 1.19.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Aalborg?

Hillerod 1-2 Aalborg in the Denmark 1st Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Aalborg?

Before kick-off our model rated an Aalborg win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 34%, draw 24%, Aalborg 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Aalborg), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Aalborg) ✓ Over 2.5
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