Alanyaspor 1-0 Kayserispor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.91
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
24%
3.16
6+ Goals
11%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.73
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
12.45
X/1
20%
4.78
X/2
9%
7.42
X/X
10%
4.89
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
15%
5.08
2/X
9%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
-0.4pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+2.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.9pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alanyaspor EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Kayserispor EU Bookmakers 31%
-2% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +1%
1.65/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.60
+14% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -9%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
372 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 78%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.2
21.0 Crosses 16.6
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alanyaspor
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Kayserispor
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.72 xG 1.03
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
380 Passes 408
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
18 Box Touches 20
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 3
06.11.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-0 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
20.05.2023 Kayserispor Kayserispor 0-4 HT 0-2 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
28.12.2022 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 3-1 HT 2-0 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
07.03.2022 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-2 HT 1-1 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
18.10.2021 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor 6-3 HT 3-2 Kayserispor Kayserispor TSL
03.02.2021 Kayserispor Kayserispor 1-1 HT 0-0 Alanyaspor Alanyaspor TSL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alanyaspor
1-0
AWAY Kayserispor
1.21 xG 0.88
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 3
399 Passes 402
83% Pass Accuracy 81%
16 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alanyaspor squeezed past Kayserispor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Alanyaspor as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Alanyaspor had 50% of the ball to Kayserispor's 50%, shots finished 8-13, expected goals 1.21 to 0.88.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alanyaspor had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Alanyaspor and 1.17 for Kayserispor.

What was the final score of Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?

Alanyaspor 1-0 Kayserispor in the Turkey - Super League on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alanyaspor vs Kayserispor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alanyaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Alanyaspor 46%, draw 25%, Kayserispor 30%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alanyaspor) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alanyaspor) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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