El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.84
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
36%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.95
Over 2.5
48%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.66
No
50%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.56
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
23%
3.37
6+ Goals
9%
12.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.56 — our 27% vs market 22.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
14%
2/2
17%
2/X
11%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
31%
+5.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.6pp
36%
Away Win
43%
-7.4pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS No
44%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 48%
+1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
1.19/0.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/0.87
-21% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -33% / +107%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
308 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 365 · 80%
16.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.7 Crosses 19.3
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME El Paso Locomotive
1W-0D-1L
AWAY Louisville City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.72 xG 1.11
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
312 Passes 318
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.03.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 0-3 HT 0-2 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
31.07.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 0-1 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME El Paso Locomotive
0-1
AWAY Louisville City
1.02 xG 0.68
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
1 Corners 2
336 Passes 251
74% Pass Accuracy 70%
22 Box Touches 16
8 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH El Paso Locomotive vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Louisville City squeezed past El Paso Locomotive 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 37% / 27% / 36% — and on the day Louisville City made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, El Paso Locomotive had 55% of the ball to Louisville City's 45%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 1.02 to 0.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for El Paso Locomotive and 0.50 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of El Paso Locomotive vs Louisville City?

El Paso Locomotive 0-1 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for El Paso Locomotive vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated a El Paso Locomotive win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split El Paso Locomotive 37%, draw 27%, Louisville City 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (El Paso Locomotive) ✓ Under 2.5
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