Loudoun United 3-1 North Carolina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.8
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
43%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.07
Over 2.5
51%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.98
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
3.12
6+ Goals
10%
10.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.98 — our 28% vs market 20.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.4pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.6pp
43%
Away Win
43%
-0.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
44%
+4.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
56%
-4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.6pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Loudoun United EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY North Carolina EU Bookmakers 48%
-3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +41% / +41%
1.82/1.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.86/1.28
+18% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% /
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
286 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 272 · 72%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
16.0 Crosses 11.0
3.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Loudoun United
2W-0D-1L
AWAY North Carolina
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.41 xG 1.80
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 6
370 Passes 358
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 28
18 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2023 Loudoun United Loudoun United 2-1 HT 1-0 North Carolina North Carolina ABDK
01.09.2019 Loudoun United Loudoun United 4-0 HT 2-0 North Carolina North Carolina USLP
18.07.2019 North Carolina North Carolina 3-0 HT 1-0 Loudoun United Loudoun United USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Loudoun United
3-1
AWAY North Carolina
0.96 xG 1.41
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 3
402 Passes 353
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
12 Box Touches 19
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Loudoun United vs North Carolina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Loudoun United saw off North Carolina 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was North Carolina at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Loudoun United had 52% of the ball to North Carolina's 48%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.96 to 1.41 — the balance of chances actually favoured North Carolina.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Loudoun United had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Loudoun United and 1.33 for North Carolina.

What was the final score of Loudoun United vs North Carolina?

Loudoun United 3-1 North Carolina in the USL Championship on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Loudoun United vs North Carolina?

Before kick-off our model rated an North Carolina win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Loudoun United 33%, draw 24%, North Carolina 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (North Carolina) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (North Carolina) ✓ Over 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
USLP More USL Championship
16 Mar 2024
22:00 El Paso Locomotive vs Louisville City Analysis →
23:00 Memphis 901 vs Indy Eleven Analysis →
23:00 Rhode Island vs New Mexico United Analysis →