Illescas 2-1 Atlético Paso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.75
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.51
Over 2.5
41%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
2.27
No
56%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
53%
-2.1pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.1pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.2pp
59%
Under 2.5
62%
-3.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
38%
+3.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
40%
+4.2pp
56%
BTTS No
60%
-4.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Illescas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlético Paso EU Bookmakers 22%
-29% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -18%
1.16/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.72/1.50
-25% / -62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
385 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 210 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Illescas
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Atlético Paso
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 46%
4 Total Shots 6
1 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.11.2024 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 2-1 HT 1-1 Illescas İS4
28.01.2024 Illescas 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso İS4
17.09.2023 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 1-1 HT 0-0 Illescas İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Illescas
2-1
AWAY Atlético Paso
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 2
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Illescas vs Atlético Paso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Illescas nicked a narrow win over Atlético Paso 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Illescas as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Illescas had 52% of the ball to Atlético Paso's 48%, shots finished 9-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Atlético Paso led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Illescas and 1.00 for Atlético Paso.

What was the final score of Illescas vs Atlético Paso?

Illescas 2-1 Atlético Paso in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Illescas vs Atlético Paso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Illescas win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Illescas 51%, draw 25%, Atlético Paso 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Illescas) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Illescas) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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