Navalcarnero 4-2 Mostoles — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
32%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.59
Over 2.5
47%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
2.03
No
51%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
11%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
24%
Draw
27%
-2.7pp
32%
Away Win
25%
+6.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
59%
-6.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
41%
+6.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.4pp
51%
BTTS No
55%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mostoles EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
1.58/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.10
+13% / -22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.1 Yellow Cards 3.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Mostoles
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 5
03.11.2024 Mostoles 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
17.04.2022 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 2-1 HT 2-0 Mostoles İS4
28.11.2021 Mostoles 0-1 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
4-2
AWAY Mostoles
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 3
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Mostoles
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero got the better of Mostoles 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Navalcarnero as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 50% of the ball to Mostoles's 50%, shots finished 9-18.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Navalcarnero had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Navalcarnero and 0.33 for Mostoles.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Mostoles?

Navalcarnero 4-2 Mostoles in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Mostoles?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 44%, draw 24%, Mostoles 32%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İS4 More Spain - 2nd Division RFEF
16 Mar 2025
13:30 Cornella vs Mallorca II Analysis →
13:30 La Union Atletico vs Xerez Deportivo Analysis →
13:30 Illescas vs Atlético Paso Analysis →
14:00 Rayo Majadahonda vs CD Guadalajara Analysis →
14:00 Union Adarve vs SS Reyes Analysis →
14:00 Tenerife II vs Getafe II Analysis →