Navalcarnero vs Mostoles Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Navalcarnero v Mostoles — Team-Based Signals
Navalcarnero vs Mostoles Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-0
Mostoles
İS4
Navalcarnero
İS4
Navalcarnero 4-2 Mostoles — Actual Match Statistics
Navalcarnero got the better of Mostoles 4-2. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Navalcarnero as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.
On the day, Navalcarnero had 50% of the ball to Mostoles's 50%, shots finished 9-18.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Navalcarnero had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Navalcarnero and 0.33 for Mostoles.
What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Mostoles?
Navalcarnero 4-2 Mostoles in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Mostoles?
Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 44%, draw 24%, Mostoles 32%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.