Auda 1-0 Super Nova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.34
Draw
24%
4.49
Away
20%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.13
No
55%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1/2
3%
1/X
5%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
4%
2/2
10%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
70%
-13.6pp
23%
Draw
19%
+4.5pp
20%
Away Win
11%
+9.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+4.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
43%
+2.3pp
55%
BTTS No
57%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auda EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Super Nova EU Bookmakers 14%
-2% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +12%
1.78/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/2.28
-25% / +62% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / +17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
371 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 255 · 72%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
21.2 Crosses 13.7
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auda
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Super Nova
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
2.86 xG 0.43
68% Ball Possession 32%
23 Total Shots 7
11 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
554 Passes 198
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
41 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
02.03.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova HAZ
02.09.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
25.06.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 0-5 HT 0-4 Auda Auda LET
02.05.2023 Super Nova Super Nova 0-2 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LET
11.03.2023 Auda Auda 2-0 HT 2-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
18.09.2022 Auda Auda 3-0 HT 1-0 Super Nova Super Nova LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auda
1-0
AWAY Super Nova
1.90 xG 0.14
65% Ball Possession 35%
18 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 0
11 Corners 4
429 Passes 168
84% Pass Accuracy 66%
43 Box Touches 11
35 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Auda vs Super Nova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auda squeezed past Super Nova 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auda as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Auda had 65% of the ball to Super Nova's 35%, shots finished 18-6, expected goals 1.90 to 0.14 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Auda's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Auda and 0.00 for Super Nova.

What was the final score of Auda vs Super Nova?

Auda 1-0 Super Nova in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auda vs Super Nova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Auda 56%, draw 23%, Super Nova 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auda), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auda) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
16 Mar 2025
14:00 Metta / LU Riga vs FK Tukums 2000 Analysis →
20:00 Liepaja vs Grobina Analysis →