Liepaja 4-1 Grobina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
27%
4.08
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
2.0
Over 2.5
44%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
37%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
13%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
63%
-12.1pp
27%
Draw
21%
+5.6pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
46%
+9.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
54%
-9.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.5pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Liepaja EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Grobina EU Bookmakers 20%
-15% / -29% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.56/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/1.94
-7% / -23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / -23%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
412 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 236 · 72%
30.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
24.5 Crosses 21.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Liepaja
2W-0D-3L
AWAY Grobina
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.33 xG 1.29
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
338 Passes 261
78% Pass Accuracy 74%
25 Box Touches 16
23 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 5
26.10.2024 Grobina Grobina 1-3 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
03.08.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-1 HT 0-1 Grobina Grobina LET
29.05.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
18.04.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
10.07.2022 Grobina Grobina 2-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Liepaja
4-1
AWAY Grobina
0.98 xG 2.39
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 3
336 Passes 235
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
16 Box Touches 20
25 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Liepaja vs Grobina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja ran out comfortable winners over Grobina 4-1. Half-time: 3-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Liepaja had 56% of the ball to Grobina's 44%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.98 to 2.39 — the balance of chances actually favoured Grobina.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Grobina led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Liepaja and 1.40 for Grobina.

What was the final score of Liepaja vs Grobina?

Liepaja 4-1 Grobina in the Latvia - Virsliga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Liepaja vs Grobina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Liepaja 50%, draw 27%, Grobina 23%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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