Grobina 1-3 Liepaja — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
49%
1.56
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.91
Over 2.5
44%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.9
No
56%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
9%
X/1
10%
X/2
18%
X/X
17%
2/1
5%
2/2
26%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+5.9pp
28%
Draw
23%
+5.7pp
49%
Away Win
60%
-11.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
48%
+7.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
52%
-7.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.1pp
56%
BTTS No
51%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Liepaja EU Bookmakers 64%
+26% / +26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.99/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.19/2.11
+73% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -29%
42% Ball Possession 58%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
295 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 384 · 80%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.7
14.0 Crosses 17.0
4.7 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Liepaja
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.39 xG 0.93
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
274 Passes 316
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
13 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 5
03.08.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 0-1 HT 0-1 Grobina Grobina LET
29.05.2024 Liepaja Liepaja 3-0 HT 1-0 Grobina Grobina LET
18.04.2024 Grobina Grobina 3-2 HT 1-1 Liepaja Liepaja LET
10.07.2022 Grobina Grobina 2-1 HT 0-1 Liepaja Liepaja LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-3
AWAY Liepaja
0.98 xG 2.55
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 7
224 Passes 406
73% Pass Accuracy 86%
23 Box Touches 36
18 Crosses 30
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Grobina vs Liepaja
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Liepaja got the better of Grobina 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Liepaja as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Grobina had 39% of the ball to Liepaja's 61%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.98 to 2.55.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Grobina had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Grobina and 1.50 for Liepaja.

What was the final score of Grobina vs Liepaja?

Grobina 1-3 Liepaja in the Latvia - Virsliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs Liepaja?

Before kick-off our model rated an Liepaja win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Grobina 23%, draw 28%, Liepaja 49%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Liepaja) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Liepaja) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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