BFC Daugavpils 1-2 Auda — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
5.4
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
50%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.95
Over 2.5
53%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
11%
X/2
25%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
19%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
15%
+9.1pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
50%
Away Win
64%
-13.5pp
47%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+6.9pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 18%
Head to Head
AWAY Auda EU Bookmakers 69%
-8% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +0%
0.57/1.67 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.97/0.88
-44% / -12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +23%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
226 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 358 · 76%
13.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.9
14.4 Crosses 16.6
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Auda
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.48 xG 1.65
36% Ball Possession 64%
9 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
225 Passes 476
72% Pass Accuracy 85%
15 Box Touches 26
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.08.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
28.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-3 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LET
17.04.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.11.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.08.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-2 Auda Auda LET
16.07.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-4 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LETK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-2
AWAY Auda
1.70 xG 1.42
28% Ball Possession 72%
13 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
169 Passes 591
68% Pass Accuracy 90%
17 Box Touches 39
15 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs Auda
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auda squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Auda as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 28% of the ball to Auda's 72%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.70 to 1.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 2.00 for Auda.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?

BFC Daugavpils 1-2 Auda in the Latvia - Virsliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs Auda?

Before kick-off our model rated an Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 24%, draw 25%, Auda 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auda), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Auda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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