Auda 1-0 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 4 Aug 2024

📅04/08/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
22%
4.34
Away
20%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
41%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
8%
X/X
7%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
67%
-8.4pp
22%
Draw
20%
+1.2pp
20%
Away Win
13%
+7.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
+0.2pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Auda EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 16%
-1% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.59/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.64/2.11
-9% / +95% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -38% / +11%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
310 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 71%
30.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.9
21.1 Crosses 12.0
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Auda
5W-1D-0L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.56 xG 0.63
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
492 Passes 219
84% Pass Accuracy 71%
27 Box Touches 14
17 Crosses 12
3 Yellow Cards 2
28.05.2024 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-3 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LET
17.04.2024 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 1-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
11.11.2023 Auda Auda 1-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.08.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 0-2 HT 0-2 Auda Auda LET
16.07.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-4 HT 0-1 Auda Auda LETK
10.06.2023 Auda Auda 1-1 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Auda
1-0
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.32 xG 0.49
65% Ball Possession 35%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
449 Passes 199
86% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 18
24 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Auda vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Auda squeezed past BFC Daugavpils 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Auda as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Auda had 65% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 35%, shots finished 13-13, expected goals 1.32 to 0.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Auda had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Auda and 0.33 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

Auda 1-0 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 04/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Auda win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Auda 58%, draw 22%, BFC Daugavpils 20%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Auda), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Auda) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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