Valmiera / BSS 3-2 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 26 Oct 2024

📅26/10/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
63%
1.18
Draw
20%
6.26
Away
17%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
3.14
Over 2.5
58%
1.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
5%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
6%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
63%
Home Win
79%
-16.5pp
20%
Draw
12%
+7.3pp
17%
Away Win
8%
+9.3pp
42%
Under 2.5
28%
+13.4pp
58%
Over 2.5
72%
-13.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.2pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Valmiera / BSS EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 11%
-12% / -24% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +21%
2.16/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/2.19
+1% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -16%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
431 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 72%
36.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
29.2 Crosses 12.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Valmiera / BSS
4W-1D-1L
AWAY FS Jelgava
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.99 xG 1.09
62% Ball Possession 38%
20 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
365 Passes 174
78% Pass Accuracy 63%
34 Box Touches 19
32 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.08.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-4 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
28.05.2024 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 4-0 HT 2-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
18.04.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-3 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
05.11.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-1 HT 0-1 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
13.08.2023 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS 2-2 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
05.06.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Valmiera / BSS Valmiera / BSS LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Valmiera / BSS
3-2
AWAY FS Jelgava
3.61 xG 1.33
61% Ball Possession 39%
28 Total Shots 19
9 Shots on Target 8
9 Corners 13
332 Passes 173
79% Pass Accuracy 69%
44 Box Touches 20
29 Crosses 30
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valmiera / BSS edged past FS Jelgava 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Valmiera / BSS as the likeliest winner at 63%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Valmiera / BSS had 61% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 39%, shots finished 28-19, expected goals 3.61 to 1.33 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Valmiera / BSS's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Valmiera / BSS had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Valmiera / BSS and 0.67 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava?

Valmiera / BSS 3-2 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 26/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Valmiera / BSS vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Valmiera / BSS win the most likely single outcome at about 63%, with the full match-result split Valmiera / BSS 63%, draw 20%, FS Jelgava 17%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valmiera / BSS), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valmiera / BSS) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
LET More Latvia - Virsliga
26 Oct 2024
14:00 Grobina vs Liepaja Analysis →
16:00 BFC Daugavpils vs Auda Analysis →