Colchester 2-0 Grimsby Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Apr 2024

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.12
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.8
Over 2.5
43%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.75
No
57%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
3.16
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 33% vs market 26.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.1
1/2
6%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
20%
4.78
X/2
13%
6.38
X/X
12%
4.54
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
14%
4.64
2/X
6%
13.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 57%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.4pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.5pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.9pp
57%
Under 2.5
52%
+5.4pp
43%
Over 2.5
48%
-5.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
53%
-9.8pp
57%
BTTS No
47%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Colchester EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 33%
-5% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +9%
1.56/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.31
-4% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
258 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
25.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
20.2 Crosses 19.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Colchester
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.16 xG 1.25
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
207 Passes 269
61% Pass Accuracy 67%
20 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 1
24.10.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-3 HT 1-2 Colchester Colchester İN2
11.02.2023 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-1 HT 0-1 Colchester Colchester İN2
17.09.2022 Colchester Colchester 0-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
13.03.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Colchester Colchester İN2
05.12.2020 Colchester Colchester 2-1 HT 1-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
11.02.2020 Colchester Colchester 2-3 HT 2-1 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Colchester
2-0
AWAY Grimsby Town
1.16 xG 0.77
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
226 Passes 288
72% Pass Accuracy 74%
16 Box Touches 34
7 Crosses 23
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Colchester vs Grimsby Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Colchester saw off Grimsby Town 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Colchester as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Colchester had 44% of the ball to Grimsby Town's 56%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 1.16 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Colchester had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Colchester and 1.17 for Grimsby Town.

What was the final score of Colchester vs Grimsby Town?

Colchester 2-0 Grimsby Town in the England - 2nd Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Colchester vs Grimsby Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Colchester win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Colchester 41%, draw 26%, Grimsby Town 33%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Colchester), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Colchester) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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