Notts County 2-5 Stockport County — Result, Stats & Model Review (England - 2nd Division, 16 Apr 2024)

Notts County

2-5 HT 0-3

Stockport County

📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3

Top 2 Score Predictions

1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗

England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Notts County vs Stockport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions

Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend

⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.

Match Result

Home

28%

3.32

Draw

25%

3.64

Away

47%

1.87

Under/Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45%

2.23

Over 2.5

55%

1.59

Both Teams to Score

Yes

56%

1.55

44%

2.29

Total Goals

0-1 Goal

25%

4.28

2-3 Goals

39%

1.87

4-5 Goals

23%

2.99

6+ Goals

13%

9.13

Half Time / Full Time

1/1

11%

5.2

1/2 EV+ ✗

22.3

1/X

13.5

X/1

11%

7.64

X/2

18%

4.6

X/X

5.39

2/1

34.0

2/2

21%

2.56

2/X

13.15

Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.

PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine

Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline

◎

Our call

BTTS Yes — 56% ✓

Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.

STRENGTH Away Win BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.

Model vs Market — where we differ

iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers

28%

Home Win

27%

+1.1pp

25%

Draw

24%

+0.9pp

47%

Away Win

49%

-2.0pp

45%

Under 2.5

41%

+4.3pp

55%

Over 2.5

59%

-4.3pp

56%

BTTS Yes

60%

-4.9pp

44%

BTTS No

40%

+4.9pp

gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Notts County v Stockport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine

iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals

HOME Notts County EU Bookmakers 30%

Head to Head

AWAY Stockport County EU Bookmakers 54%

-4% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +13%

1.59/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/0.93

+26% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +36% / -3%

46% Ball Possession 54%

11 Total Shots 13

4 Shots on Target 5

4 Corners 6

276 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 76%

17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2

25.0 Crosses 18.9

2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Notts County vs Stockport County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings

Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings

HOME Notts County

3W-1D-2L

AWAY Stockport County

1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17

0.93 xG 1.55

51% Ball Possession 49%

8 Total Shots 10

4 Shots on Target 4

4 Corners 7

561 Passes 240

88% Pass Accuracy 73%

23 Box Touches 9

21 Crosses 6

1 Yellow Cards 2

The Meetings

22.12.2023 Stockport County

2-1 HT 1-0

Notts County İN2

15.03.2022 Stockport County

3-0 HT 1-0

Notts County İBSL

23.10.2021 Notts County

2-1 HT 0-0

Stockport County İBSL

23.02.2021 Stockport County

0-0 HT 0-0

Notts County İBSL

16.01.2021 Stockport County

1-2 HT 1-1

Notts County FAK

15.12.2020 Notts County

1-0 HT 1-0

Stockport County İBSL

Notts County 2-5 Stockport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result

Real recorded figures from this match

HOME Notts County

2-5

AWAY Stockport County

1.36 xG 4.34

65% Ball Possession 35%

13 Total Shots 22

7 Shots on Target 9

2 Corners 9

549 Passes 259

91% Pass Accuracy 82%

13 Box Touches 45

17 Crosses 18

2 Yellow Cards 2

POST-MATCH Notts County vs Stockport County

iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stockport County cruised past Notts County 5-2 away from home. Half-time: 0-3. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Stockport County as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 5-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Notts County had 65% of the ball to Stockport County's 35%, shots finished 13-22, expected goals 1.36 to 4.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Notts County and 1.17 for Stockport County.

What was the final score of Notts County vs Stockport County?

Notts County 2-5 Stockport County in the England - 2nd Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Notts County vs Stockport County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Stockport County win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Notts County 28%, draw 25%, Stockport County 47%. The final score 2-5 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Stockport County), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Stockport County) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes

Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →

Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →

İN2 More England - 2nd Division

16 Apr 2024

21:45 Walsall vs Swindon Town Analysis →

21:45 Crawley Town vs Barrow Analysis →

21:45 Colchester vs Grimsby Town Analysis →

21:45 Mansfield Town vs Accrington Stanley Analysis →