Crawley Town 1-1 Barrow — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Apr 2024

Crawley Town
1-1 HT 0-1
Barrow
📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Crawley Town vs Barrow Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.19
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
34%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.86
Over 2.5
52%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.29
2-3 Goals
36%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
25%
3.58
6+ Goals
13%
14.35
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.58 — our 25% vs market 22.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.22
1/2
6%
31.5
1/X
7%
13.6
X/1
21%
4.9
X/2
13%
6.02
X/X
8%
4.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.28
2/X
9%
13.75
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 9% vs market 1.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 52% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
42%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.6pp
34%
Away Win
32%
+2.3pp
48%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.3pp
52%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.8pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Crawley Town v Barrow — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Crawley Town EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Barrow EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.48/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.30
+14% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
284 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 65%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.7
19.5 Crosses 19.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0

Crawley Town vs Barrow Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Crawley Town
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Barrow
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
0.99 xG 1.77
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
285 Passes 201
66% Pass Accuracy 61%
17 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
18.11.2023 Barrow Barrow 1-0 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
10.04.2023 Barrow Barrow 4-0 HT 1-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
12.11.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
09.04.2022 Crawley Town Crawley Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Barrow Barrow İN2
20.11.2021 Barrow Barrow 0-1 HT 0-0 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2
20.03.2021 Barrow Barrow 3-2 HT 2-1 Crawley Town Crawley Town İN2

Crawley Town 1-1 Barrow — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Crawley Town
1-1
AWAY Barrow
1.79 xG 1.37
71% Ball Possession 29%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 4
570 Passes 189
88% Pass Accuracy 75%
23 Box Touches 21
22 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Crawley Town vs Barrow
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Crawley Town and Barrow couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Crawley Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Crawley Town had 71% of the ball to Barrow's 29%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.79 to 1.37.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Crawley Town and 1.33 for Barrow.

What was the final score of Crawley Town vs Barrow?

Crawley Town 1-1 Barrow in the England - 2nd Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Crawley Town vs Barrow?

Before kick-off our model rated a Crawley Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Crawley Town 42%, draw 24%, Barrow 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Crawley Town), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Crawley Town) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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