Walsall 2-1 Swindon Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 16 Apr 2024

Walsall
2-1 HT 1-0
Swindon Town
📅16/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
England - 2nd Division – 2023/2024

Walsall vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.23
Over 2.5
60%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.53
No
40%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
4.66
2-3 Goals
35%
1.91
4-5 Goals
28%
2.86
6+ Goals
17%
8.03
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.56
1/2
6%
33.0
1/X
8%
12.65
X/1
21%
4.74
X/2
8%
7.79
X/X
10%
5.45
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
21.85
2/2
15%
5.11
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.85 — our 9% vs market 2.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our call
Over 2.5 — 60% ✓
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
49%
-1.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.7pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.0pp
60%
BTTS Yes
61%
-0.9pp
40%
BTTS No
39%
+0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Walsall v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Walsall EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Swindon Town EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -20%
1.68/0.87 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.30/1.51
-7% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +34% / -14%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
353 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
24.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.7
22.3 Crosses 16.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Walsall vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Walsall
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Swindon Town
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.06 xG 1.05
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
210 Passes 346
67% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 20
16 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.09.2023 Swindon Town Swindon Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Walsall Walsall İN2
14.03.2023 Walsall Walsall 0-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
26.12.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 1-2 HT 1-1 Walsall Walsall İN2
09.08.2022 Walsall Walsall 2-0 HT 0-0 Swindon Town Swindon Town İNLK
07.05.2022 Walsall Walsall 0-3 HT 0-3 Swindon Town Swindon Town İN2
22.02.2022 Swindon Town Swindon Town 5-0 HT 2-0 Walsall Walsall İN2

Walsall 2-1 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Walsall
2-1
AWAY Swindon Town
2.03 xG 0.61
37% Ball Possession 63%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
246 Passes 503
75% Pass Accuracy 85%
28 Box Touches 18
26 Crosses 25
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Walsall vs Swindon Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Walsall nicked a narrow win over Swindon Town 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Walsall as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (60%) came in.

On the day, Walsall had 37% of the ball to Swindon Town's 63%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 2.03 to 0.61 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Walsall's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Swindon Town led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Walsall and 1.83 for Swindon Town.

What was the final score of Walsall vs Swindon Town?

Walsall 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 16/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Walsall vs Swindon Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Walsall win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Walsall 47%, draw 24%, Swindon Town 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Walsall), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Walsall) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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