Ario Eslamshahr 1-1 Naft Gachsaran — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iran - Azadegan League, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
21%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
69%
1.45
Over 2.5
31%
2.61
Both Teams to Score
Yes
32%
2.29
No
68%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
45%
1.99
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
13%
5.99
6+ Goals
6%
35.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 1.99 — our 45% vs market 41.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
6%
1/X
4%
X/1
17%
X/2
8%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.3pp
21%
Away Win
24%
-3.4pp
69%
Under 2.5
65%
+3.4pp
31%
Over 2.5
35%
-3.4pp
32%
BTTS Yes
40%
-7.4pp
68%
BTTS No
60%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ario Eslamshahr EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Naft Gachsaran EU Bookmakers 28%
+5% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -10%
1.07/0.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.76/0.92
-5% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / +10%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
390 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ario Eslamshahr
2W-1D-0L
AWAY Naft Gachsaran
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
30.11.2024 Naft Gachsaran 0-1 HT 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr IRANAZ
09.03.2024 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr 1-0 HT 0-0 Naft Gachsaran IRANAZ
01.10.2023 Naft Gachsaran 0-0 HT 0-0 Ario Eslamshahr Ario Eslamshahr IRANAZ
POST-MATCH Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Gachsaran
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ario Eslamshahr and Naft Gachsaran shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Ario Eslamshahr at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (69%) landed while no to both teams scoring (68%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Ario Eslamshahr had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Ario Eslamshahr and 0.00 for Naft Gachsaran.

What was the final score of Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Gachsaran?

Ario Eslamshahr 1-1 Naft Gachsaran in the Iran - Azadegan League on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ario Eslamshahr vs Naft Gachsaran?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ario Eslamshahr win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Ario Eslamshahr 49%, draw 30%, Naft Gachsaran 21%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ario Eslamshahr), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ario Eslamshahr) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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