Alianza Petrolera 1-0 Deportivo Pasto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Colombia - Primera, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.0
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
28%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
2.16
No
61%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
39%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
16%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
12%
X/2
7%
X/X
17%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
46%
-4.2pp
29%
Draw
29%
+0.4pp
28%
Away Win
24%
+3.8pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+1.8pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-1.9pp
39%
BTTS Yes
42%
-3.3pp
61%
BTTS No
58%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Petrolera EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Deportivo Pasto EU Bookmakers 28%
+10% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -2%
1.48/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.22
+17% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -22% / +31%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
334 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 245 · 73%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.2
19.8 Crosses 11.8
2.8 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Petrolera
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.07 xG 1.13
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
300 Passes 274
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 18
18 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
30.09.2024 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
16.03.2024 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-1 HT 1-1 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
22.07.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 1-1 HT 1-1 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
05.06.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 1-0 HT 0-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
02.06.2023 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera KOL
10.03.2023 Alianza Petrolera Alianza Petrolera 3-1 HT 1-0 Deportivo Pasto Deportivo Pasto KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Petrolera
1-0
AWAY Deportivo Pasto
0.66 xG 0.46
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
375 Passes 296
85% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Petrolera edged past Deportivo Pasto 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alianza Petrolera as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (64%), no to both teams scoring (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Alianza Petrolera had 55% of the ball to Deportivo Pasto's 45%, shots finished 12-15, expected goals 0.66 to 0.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Petrolera had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Alianza Petrolera and 0.67 for Deportivo Pasto.

What was the final score of Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto?

Alianza Petrolera 1-0 Deportivo Pasto in the Colombia - Primera on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Petrolera vs Deportivo Pasto?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Petrolera win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Alianza Petrolera 42%, draw 29%, Deportivo Pasto 28%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Petrolera), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Petrolera) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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