Sporting Covilha vs Lusitania Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sporting Covilha v Lusitania — Team-Based Signals
Sporting Covilha vs Lusitania Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
Sporting Covilha 1-2 Lusitania — Actual Match Statistics
Lusitania edged past Sporting Covilha 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Sporting Covilha at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, Sporting Covilha had 57% of the ball to Lusitania's 43%, shots finished 22-10.
Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Lusitania led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Sporting Covilha and 1.00 for Lusitania.
What was the final score of Sporting Covilha vs Lusitania?
Sporting Covilha 1-2 Lusitania in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sporting Covilha vs Lusitania?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sporting Covilha 47%, draw 26%, Lusitania 26%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Sporting Covilha) went the other way.