Lusitania 2-0 Sporting Covilha — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 15 Mar 2025

📅15/03/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.67
Draw
29%
3.11
Away
41%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.6
Over 2.5
42%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.95
No
51%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
16%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
16%
2/X
12%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
34%
-3.9pp
29%
Draw
29%
-0.1pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+3.9pp
58%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
47%
+1.5pp
51%
BTTS No
53%
-1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lusitania EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Covilha EU Bookmakers 40%
-13% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.48/2.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/0.50
+12% / -51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +150%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
297 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lusitania
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Sporting Covilha
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
15.01.2025 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha 0-0 HT 0-0 Lusitania Lusitania POR3
15.09.2024 Lusitania Lusitania 1-0 HT 0-0 Sporting Covilha Sporting Covilha POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lusitania
2-0
AWAY Sporting Covilha
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lusitania got the better of Sporting Covilha 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Sporting Covilha at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%) came in.

On the day, Lusitania had 46% of the ball to Sporting Covilha's 54%, shots finished 12-12.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Lusitania had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Lusitania and 0.00 for Sporting Covilha.

What was the final score of Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha?

Lusitania 2-0 Sporting Covilha in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 15/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lusitania vs Sporting Covilha?

Before kick-off our model rated an Sporting Covilha win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Lusitania 30%, draw 29%, Sporting Covilha 41%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sporting Covilha) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sporting Covilha) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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