Nafta 1-1 Maribor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 1st Division, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.65
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
53%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.97
Over 2.5
45%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.82
No
59%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.45
2-3 Goals
38%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.21
6+ Goals
10%
11.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.45 — our 30% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
7%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
12%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
34%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
18%
+4.5pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.3pp
53%
Away Win
58%
-5.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
47%
+8.1pp
45%
Over 2.5
53%
-8.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
51%
-9.6pp
59%
BTTS No
49%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nafta EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Maribor EU Bookmakers 62%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -25%
1.94/1.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.71/0.99
+82% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -18%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
309 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 390 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nafta
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Maribor
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 1
08.12.2024 Maribor Maribor 4-0 HT 1-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN
22.09.2024 Nafta Nafta 0-3 HT 0-0 Maribor Maribor SLVN
16.01.2024 Maribor Maribor 0-3 HT 0-1 Nafta Nafta HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nafta
1-1
AWAY Maribor
46% Ball Possession 54%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nafta vs Maribor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nafta and Maribor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Maribor at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

On the day, Nafta had 46% of the ball to Maribor's 54%, shots finished 21-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Maribor led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nafta and 2.33 for Maribor.

What was the final score of Nafta vs Maribor?

Nafta 1-1 Maribor in the Slovenia - 1st Division on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nafta vs Maribor?

Before kick-off our model rated an Maribor win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Nafta 23%, draw 24%, Maribor 53%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Maribor), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Maribor) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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