Naples 0-1 Orlando City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 16 Apr 2026

📅16/04/2026 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.29
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
1.97
Over 2.5
60%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.68
No
43%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
31%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
8%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
7%
2/1
5%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+3.7pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.4pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.3pp
40%
Under 2.5
47%
-6.5pp
60%
Over 2.5
53%
+6.5pp
57%
BTTS Yes
56%
+1.0pp
43%
BTTS No
44%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Naples EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando City EU Bookmakers 51%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +22% / +22%
1.36/1.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.90/0.36
-20% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +150%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
321 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 430 · 84%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
23.0 Crosses 16.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Naples
0-1
AWAY Orlando City
1.78 xG 1.23
53% Ball Possession 47%
20 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 8
236 Passes 236
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 26
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Naples vs Orlando City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Orlando City squeezed past Naples 1-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Orlando City as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Naples had 53% of the ball to Orlando City's 47%, shots finished 20-17, expected goals 1.78 to 1.23 — the balance of chances actually favoured Naples.

What was the final score of Naples vs Orlando City?

Naples 0-1 Orlando City in the USA - Open Cup on 16/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Naples vs Orlando City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Orlando City win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Naples 31%, draw 23%, Orlando City 46%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Orlando City) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Orlando City) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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