Ceara 2-1 Amazonas — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie B, 16 May 2024

📅16/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
25%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.19
No
60%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.67
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.4
6+ Goals
8%
22.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.67 — our 34% vs market 31.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
19%
X/2
6%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
61%
-10.9pp
24%
Draw
24%
+0.2pp
25%
Away Win
15%
+10.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.0pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.0pp
40%
BTTS Yes
42%
-1.9pp
60%
BTTS No
58%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceara EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Amazonas EU Bookmakers 18%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.19/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.36/0.67
-23% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -100% / -9%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
375 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 75%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
22.8 Crosses 9.5
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceara
2-1
AWAY Amazonas
1.13 xG 0.56
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
274 Passes 459
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 9
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ceara vs Amazonas
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ceara squeezed past Amazonas 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ceara as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ceara had 39% of the ball to Amazonas's 61%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 1.13 to 0.56.

What was the final score of Ceara vs Amazonas?

Ceara 2-1 Amazonas in the Brazil - Serie B on 16/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceara vs Amazonas?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ceara win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Ceara 50%, draw 24%, Amazonas 25%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ceara) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ceara) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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